The 2008 presidential election process formally began with the Iowa caucuses on January 3. New Hampshire held the first presidential preference primary on January 8. The final nominating votes will be cast on June 3 when Montana, New Mexico (R) and South Dakota voters go to the polls.

The Democratic National Convention will take place in Denver from August 25-28, followed by The Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul from Sept. 1-4. The general election will be held on November 4, 2008.

________________________________________________________________________________________

Migrainoid Democrats: Next Stop...Indiana

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Why Pennsylvania Matters

Barack Obama has had three previous opportunities to knock Hillary Clinton out of the race. First, in New Hampshire in early January where all the polls pointed to an Obama win; second, on Super Tuesday in early February where a win in California (where the polls were tied) would have been enough to cripple the Clinton campaign; and then most recently in Ohio and Texas in early March, where a popular vote win in either state would have been enough to effectively knock Clinton out of the race.

Senator Obama has another opportunity tomorrow in Pennsylvania - and this time he doesn't even have to win. If he simply outperforms the latest RealClearPolitics Average which has him trailing by 5.9%, that will be enough to calm nervous superdelegates while all but eliminating any hope Senator Clinton has of claiming a popular vote victory.

Senator Clinton has a much higher hurdle. With time running out and Democrats increasingly anxious to turn their fire on John McCain, a win by 2-4 points along the lines of New Hampshire and Texas will simply not get the job done. Hillary Clinton needs a double-digit win.

Clinton will undoubtedly stay in the race with a 6-9 point victory, but at that point her chances for the nomination will be reduced to hoping for an Obama scandal or major gaffe that causes Obama's campaign to implode. Not totally impossible. But, then again, not very likely either.

Where the race could get very interesting is if Clinton is able to beat Obama by double-digits. Something to keep in mind is Pennsylvania will be the first time Democratic voters, as opposed to pollsters, have had a chance to factor in some of the recent controversies surrounding Obama the last six weeks, in particular Reverend Wright and his "bitter" comments in San Francisco. A big win by Clinton may cause a reassessment of how damaging these issues might be to Obama. On the back of Senator Obama's dismal showing in the Ohio River Valley among working class whites, his performance in Pennsylvania among downscale white voters will take on heightened importance.

A Clinton victory over 10 points will allow two critical things for the Clinton campaign.

1) Given the likelihood that Obama will overwhelmingly carry black voters and young voters, a 10+ point Clinton win, will mean Obama performed terribly among blue-collar whites. This will exacerbate angst among undecided superdelegates, fully aware that the most reasonable Democratic pathways to 270 electoral votes include wins in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Jersey.

2) A double-digit win keeps Clinton in position to be able to ultimately claim a victory in the popular vote. And a win in the popular vote is critical to the Clinton campaign's ultimate strategy for the nomination, as it gives superdelegates the rationale (and more importantly the cover) to buck all the emotional investment in Obama as the nominee.

Here is a quick guide to sort through the inevitable post-PA spin.

--Obama wins: Race is totally over.

--Clinton wins by 5 or less: Race is effectively over.

--Clinton wins by 6-9: Status quo, which favors the front runner Obama, particularly as the clock winds down.

--Clinton wins by 10-13: Clinton remains the underdog, but her odds of being the nominee will be considerably higher than the conventional wisdom in the media.

--Clinton wins by 14+: Totally different race, as Clinton will be on a path to claim a popular vote win that will give her every bit as much of an argument as the legitimate "winner". In this scenario anything could ultimately happen, including neither Clinton nor Obama becoming the eventual nominee.

For Clinton and Obama, next six weeks are critical
By Ariel SabarThu Mar 13, The Christian Science Monitor

The next six weeks of the election calendar are a desert. With no contests until Pennsylvania's on April 22 – a lifetime in this jam-packed political season – the Democratic presidential candidates will have no victories to crow about or losses to massage.

But this pause, experts say, may shape up as one of the most important stretches of the race.
In the absence of reality checks, Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama are likely to push even harder to mold perceptions of a race that refuses to be pinned down on delegate counts alone. Jockeying for "front-runner" status got under way with a jolt this week with Mrs. Clinton's suggestion that Mr. Obama would make a good running mate, and Obama's riposte: "But I'm in first place right now.

"
With wins in Wyoming Saturday and Mississippi Tuesday, Obama made up most of the delegate losses from last week's defeats in Ohio, Rhode Island, and Texas. Whether he has regained the upper hand or is simply running in place is a subject each side will try to spin to its advantage over the next 1-1/2 months.

The Clinton campaign notes that she has won most of the big states, whose large electoral college votes will be critical in November. The Obama campaign counters that he has won more states, including likely battlegrounds in the general election, and is ahead in both the popular vote and delegate count.

"These six weeks are one of the most critical periods for the Democrats," says Joseph Aistrup, a political scientist at Kansas State University in Manhattan, Kan. "The candidates will be floating a lot of trial balloons to see what particular angles work."

The audience is only partly the voters who will award Pennsylvania's 158 delegates.
Perhaps more important, analysts say, are the nearly 800 elected officials and party leaders known as superdelegates who may well tip the race; the ordinary Americans whose poll responses journalists use to gauge shifts in political momentum; and the Democratic leaders who will decide whether and how to proceed with do-overs of the primaries in Michigan and Florida, which had been stripped of their delegates because they moved up their contests in violation of party rules.

Clinton won Michigan and Florida. But Obama didn't appear on the Michigan ballot, and to honor the party sanctions, neither campaigned in the two states

.
Those primaries, if replayed in some form, would throw 366 delegates back into play. But it would also raise the threshold to win the nomination from 2,025 to 2,208. According to an Associated Press tally, Obama now has 1,598 delegates and Clinton 1,487, including pledged and superdelegates.

Neither candidate is likely to pile up enough pledged delegates – those awarded through voting – in the 10 remaining contests to seal the nomination.
A decision on whether to rerun the Michigan and Florida primaries could come in the next couple of weeks, a move likely to divert a raft of campaign resources to those delegate-rich states.

The chairman of the Democratic Party, Howard Dean, has said he is open to new contests there. But officials in those states have yet to come up with the money for the do-overs, which could cost more than $30 million. A less-expensive alternative now under discussion in both states is a mail-in primary.

In a sign that lobbying from the campaigns was already under way, Clinton's campaign released an open letter Wednesday urging the Obama campaign to "honor the results" in Michigan and Florida or agree to new contests.
Obama and his aides, however, raised concerns this week about the prospect of ballot fraud. "The state of Oregon has mail-in voting, and it took them more than a decade to perfect it," his chief strategist, David Axelrod, told reporters in a conference call. "And now we're going to turn this process over to parties within the states … with a matter of weeks to prepare?"
Obama aides are also downplaying the significance of Pennsylvania, where Clinton is heavily favored. "We'll campaign hard there," his campaign manager, David Plouffe, said in a conference call with reporters Wednesday. "But our campaign won't be defined by Pennsylvania."

Another front over the next month will be the courtship of roughly 338 super delegates who remain uncommitted.
Kalyn Free, a superdelegate and former district attorney from Oklahoma, says she has been "heavily" lobbied by both campaigns but isn't comfortable deciding until a clear front-runner emerges.

"Just when you think one candidate is dead in the water, they rebound," she said in a phone interview. "It complicates my decision in that it's a balancing act: First, what is the general will of the people? Second, what is in the best interest of the Democratic Party? Third, who is going to be the best nominee to run against John McCain?"
The week has seen a sharp escalation in rhetoric as Clinton and Obama try to answer just such questions.

The Obama campaign issued a memo Tuesday challenging Clinton's foreign policy credentials, and then demanded that Clinton denounce comments from one of her fundraisers, former vice presidential candidate Geraldine Ferraro, who told a California newspaper that Obama owed his political fortunes to being black. (Clinton later told the Associated Press that she disagreed with Ferraro.)

Clinton countered Obama's foreign policy memo with one accusing Obama of a "fundamentally misleading attack."

The closeness of the race has helped draw legions of voters to the polls and stirred activism in states unaccustomed to a role in choosing the nominee. But if the popular voting does not produce a nominee by the convention, analysts say, that could demoralize voters and cripple Democrats in November.
"The potential for one side to feel that the other has stolen the nomination is really strong right now," says Dr. Aistrup of Kansas State. "The result of that in November is that it turns a pretty strong probability of a Democratic victory into a situation where John McCain is very likely to win."

SUPER TUESDAY

February 5, 2008

 

Analysis: From USA Today "Delegate Math"

The Republicans have a better chance to produce a clear front-runner because several states, including New York, New Jersey, Missouri and Arizona, award all their GOP delegates to the candidate who wins the statewide vote. But a Republican candidate would have to attract support across the country to build a formidable lead.

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney leads the race for delegates to the Republican National Convention with 59. He is followed by former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee with 40 and Arizona Sen. John McCain with 36.

There will be more than 1,000 Republican delegates at stake on Feb. 5, enough to give a candidate a substantial boost toward the 1,191 needed to win the nomination — but only if one man emerges victorious in numerous states.

"I think you could have two or three viable (GOP) candidates" following Super Tuesday, said Ohio Republican Chairman Robert Bennett.

"Somebody's going to have some big wins, but you're going to go into March 4, and you're not going to have an apparent (GOP) nominee," Bennett said.

Ohio is waiting in the wings with its 85 Republican delegates on March 4, a date it shares with Texas, which will award 137 GOP delegates.

Other big states with later contests include Maryland and Virginia on Feb. 12, Wisconsin on Feb. 19 and Pennsylvania on April 22.

Florida, January 29, 2008

 Republican Party of Florida

IOWA Republican Party:

2008 IOWA CAUCUS RESOURCE GUIDE

VOTING INFORMATION NEWS DECEMBER 2007 - Vol. 17, No. 12
A roundup of voting news from the Federal Voting Assistance Program (FVAP)
for voters, potential voters and those who assist voters.


NEW FVAP VOTER REGISTRATION AND BALLOT DELIVERY FEATURES
The Federal Voting Assistance Program (FVAP) will add a series of new
features to the FVAP website to help facilitate the absentee voting process
for military and overseas citizens through the use of electronic solutions.

The first feature, coming this December, is an automated version of the
Federal Post Card Application (FPCA) that will be available to all voters
covered under the Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting
Act(UOCAVA). Citizens will be guided through the completion of the Federal
Post Card Application (FPCA) form based on the requirements of their state
of legal residence.

To use this feature, citizens create an account on a secure server hosted by
the Department of Defense. When the FPCA has been completed, a PDF version
will be generated and users will be provided with the submission options
that are allowed in their state or jurisdiction, including via postal mail,
fax, email, or through a secure Department of Defense server.

Through the secure server process, users from participating jurisdictions
can upload a printed, signed, and scanned FPCA onto the secure Department of
Defense server. Their local election official, after receiving a
notification email, can then log onto the secure server and download the
FPCA.

Two additional components will be added next spring in preparation for the
2008 General Election. The first, coming in March of 2008, will allow local
election officials to provide a blank ballot to the voter through the secure
Department of Defense server. The UOCAVA citizen can then print, mark, and
sign the blank ballot, prior to submitting it in accordance with state law.

In June of 2008, the capability will be added to allow UOCAVA citizens to
digitally sign and electronically forward the FPCA to the local election
official through the secure Department of Defense server.

Please note that these new features will not facilitate the submission of
voted ballots.

It is important to keep in mind that in addition to the new automated FPCA
option, UOCAVA citizens can still complete and submit the cardstock FPCA or
the on-line version of the FPCA, which is available at www.fvap.gov. The
following pages contain instructions on how to complete and submit the form
manually.


FEDERAL POST CARD APPLICATION (STANDARD FORM SF 76)
Citizens voting under the Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting
Act(UOCAVA) are eligible to participate in all elections for Federal offices
in their state of legal residence. Many of these citizens are also eligible
to vote in state and local elections.  Because election laws vary from state
to state, please consult the recently distributed, 2008-2009 Voting
Assistance Guide or your Voting Assistance Officer (VAO). The Guide contains
state-by-state procedures for UOCAVA citizens to register and/or request an
absentee ballot using the Federal Post Card Application (FPCA, SF-76).  All
shaded areas for your state or territory as indicated in the Guide must be
completed.  The Guide is available in hard copy format or on-line at the
FVAP website, www.fvap.gov.

The FPCA is the first step in the absentee voting process. The following are
general item-by-item instructions for completing the FPCA.  It is important
to realize that state laws determine the information required on the FPCA as
well as the deadline for submitting the form.  As a result, accurate
completion and timely submission of the FPCA are critical. Follow the
instructions carefully when completing the FPCA.  After completing the form,
send it to your jurisdiction of voting residence.  The Guide contains
addresses for sending the completed form to your Local Election Official
(LEO).  Alternative means of transmitting election materials (faxing) are
also outlined in the Guide.

Although Federal law states that the FPCA is valid for two regular Federal
elections, FVAP recommends that you submit a new FPCA in January of every
year and whenever you move to ensure that your absentee ballots will the
sent to you in a timely manner.  Here is an item-by-item breakdown:

Block 1 - I Request Ballots for All Elections In Which I Am Eligible To Vote
And I Am:  Place an X only in one block. Marking Block 1c generally means
that you were a resident of that state before departing the U.S. and your
intent to return at some time in the future is uncertain. Marking Block 1c
applies for a Federal ballot only (if one is printed by the state).

Block 2 - My Information: Type or print full name, previous name (if
applicable) sex, race, date of birth,  social security number (most states
require only the last four digits), state driver's license or I.D. number,
telephone number and email address.  Provide a complete fax number where the
LEO may reach you. Some States and Territories allow you to request,
receive, and/or return your ballot by fax.  Refer to your state pages in the
Guide for more details on electronic transmission and required information
for your state.

Block 3 - My Voting Residence Address (for military, use legal residence.
For overseas citizens, use last legal residence in U.S) (Required): A
complete street address of where you actually lived in the state is
necessary for the LEO to place you in the proper voting precinct.  A post
office box is not appropriate.  If your address includes a Rural Route, use
Item 6 (Additional Information) to indicate the specific location of the
residence (for example, 2 miles south of the intersection of Route 9 and
I-34.) This address should be different from the one provided in Item 4 and
must be within the county or township where you claim legal voting
residence.

Block 4.a - Where To Send My Voting Materials: Enter the complete mailing
address where you are currently living and where you wish to receive your
absentee ballot.  This address must be different from the address you
provided in Item 3.  If you will have a new mailing address by the time
election materials will be sent to you, please be sure to indicate this
address here.

Block 4.b - My Forwarding Address: Complete 4.b only if you do not want your
ballot mailed to the address in Block 4.a. This block would be used by
citizens who have their mail forwarded by a courier or forwarding service.

Block 4.c - I Prefer To Receive My Absentee Ballot, As Permitted By My
State,
By:  Check the preference  that you would like to receive your ballot.  Some
States and Territories allow you to request, receive, and/or return your
ballot by fax or email.  Refer to your state pages in the Guide for more
details on electronic transmission.  If your state does not permit faxing or
emailing ballots, you must check the mail box.

Block 5 - My Political Party Affiliation:  In most states and
territories, you must specify your party affiliation to vote in primary
elections.  Please refer to the Guide for specific information regarding
your state's primary elections.

Block 6 - Additional Information:  Designate the period for which you want
to receive ballots - see instructions for Block 6 paragraph (3).  Consult
the Voting Assistance Guide for other specific state instructions.

Block 7 - Affirmation by applicant: Read affirmation, and sign and date.

Block 7 - Witness/Notary: Most states and territories do not require a
witness or notary.  Check the Guide for state-specific requirements and
instructions.

Absentee voting materials may be obtained through your unit, Embassy, or
Consulate VAO.  Many US citizens' organizations and corporations overseas
maintain a stock of absentee voting materials as well.

An on-line (PDF) version of the FPCA is also available for all states and
territories except Guam and American Samoa at www.fvap.gov.  The FPCA can be
completed on-line or printed out and completed.  After completing the
application, it must be signed, dated and placed in an envelope affixed with
proper postage.  Postage free envelopes, for use in the U.S. Postal System,
can also be printed from the FVAP web site.


Voting Assistance Officers
"To Do" This Month:

* Inventory your supplies of voting materials on-hand within your
organization.  FVAP recommends stocking at least four FPCAs for each citizen
you provide assistance to.  This will provide enough forms for voting age
family members, for changes of address, and for spoilage of these forms
during their completion.

* Distribute FPCAs to citizens covered by UOCAVA by January 15th as required
by the DoD Directive 1000.4.

* Inform the citizens you serve of the early 2008 Primary election
dates(calendar available at www.fvap.gov). Encourage these citizens to
submit their FPCAs early.


Voting Action Officers
Department of State: Office of Overseas Citizens Services
Chief VAO: Mr. Jack Markey, tel:
(202)736-4937,fax: (202) 647-6201,email: votinginfo@state.gov
Deputy VAO: Mr. Peter B Platukis,
tel:(202)647-3441,fax: (202) 647-6201
http://usinfo.state.gov/dhr/democracy/elections.html

Service Voting Action Officers
U.S. Dept. of the Army: Mr. Alton Perry tel: (703) 325-4530
DSN:221-4530; fax: (703) 325-4532
DSN
fax:221-4532,email:alton.c.perry@conus.army.mil,
https://www.hrc.army.mil/site/Active/TAGD/pssd/psb/votingindex.htm

U.S. Dept. of the Navy:       LT David Truman
tel:1-866-U-ASK-NPC(827-5672)(select option 6 from menu),
fax: (901) 874-6825, DSN
fax:882-6825, email:vote@navy.mil,
http://www.cni.navy.mil/cnic_hq_site/BaseSupport/CommandStaff/NavyVotingProg
ram/index.htm

U.S. Dept. of the Air Force: Mr. Gilbert D. Harrison, Jr.
tel:(210)565-5000, toll free: 1-800 616-3775 (Select options 1, then 1, then
2
  from menu), DSN 665-5000; fax: (210)
565-2543, DSN fax: 665-2543; email:DPSOOF.VOTINGFUND@Randolph.af.mil;
http://www.afcrossroads.com/VoteFund/Vote/default.htm


U.S. Marine Corps: Mr. David E. James tel: (703) 784-9511,
DSN:278-9511;fax: (703) 784-9823,
DSN fax: 278-9823;
email:david.e.james@usmc.mil
https://www.manpower.usmc.mil/pls/portal/url/page/m_ra_home/MR/Personnel/Vot
ing

U.S. Coast Guard: LTJG Frank Marcheski tel:

(202)475-5375,fax:(202)475-5375;
email: Frank.A.Marcheski@uscg.mil
http://www.uscg.mil/hq/g-w/g-wp/g-wpm/g-wpm-1/VotingAssistance/Voting_Assist
ance.htm


Federal Voting Assistance Program
Department of Defense
1155 Defense Pentagon
Washington, DC , 20301-1155
Phone:(703) 588-1584
DSN 425-1584

FAX: (703) 696-1352
DSN: 426-1352

TOLL FREE: 1-800-438-VOTE (8683)
Visit our website for international toll-free phone and fax numbers.

E-Mail:
vote@fvap.ncr.gov


Comments or suggestions on this newsletter are welcome.

Website: www.fvap.gov

Vote!